ENERGY MATTERS: 25% Odds Of Big Hurricane In Refining Belt

The odds are one in four that at least one major hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast regions that are home to 27% of U.S. refining capacity this season, according to forecasters at Colorado State University.

That's nearly twice the likelihood that was witnessed last century, forecaster Phil Klotzbach said.

An active season that sees at least one hurricane hit the Gulf Coast may lead to a replay of the events of 2005, when energy prices skyrocketed following crude oil and natural gas supply disruptions caused by hurricanes.

In a forecast released Tuesday, the widely watched Colorado State team said they expect the 2007 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, to be "very active" with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes, which pack winds of 111 miles an hour or more.

The latest forecast calls for a busier season than was projected in December, when 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes were projected.

The long-term average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.

Klotzbach said the season won't be as active as the 2005 season, which was the busiest ever and featured destructive Katrina and Rita. These two storms played havoc with the Gulf Coast refineries and shut in much offshore oil output and closed down natural gas production in the Gulf.

The April forecast is identical to that issued last year at this time, which proved to be greatly overstated, as El Nino weather conditions and large volumes of atmospheric dust from West Africa altered conditions that feed an active hurricane season.

The 2006 season was less active than normal, with 10 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. In 2006, no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.

Klotzbach said the forecasters have more confidence in this year's projections, because El Nino - the unusual warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean - was considered to be a wild card. The appearance of El Nino altered the conditions that would have allowed a more intense storm season to occur.

"There's more confidence this year," he said in an interview. "The season may prove to be less (intense than the forecast), but I'd be very surprised to see it be uneventful."


Elements For A Busy Season

Veteran Colorado State forecaster William Gray said current conditions, including a neutral-to-weak La Nina phenomenon are "a recipe for greatly enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity." La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, is the unusual cooling of equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures.

Overall, the forecasters see the probability that a major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline at 74%, compared with an average of 52% for the 20th century. The chances of landfall along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, are 50%, compared with a long-term 31% average.

There is a 49% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, compared with a long-term average of 30%.

An Energy Matters review of regional landfall data published by Colorado State shows a 65.5% likelihood of a named tropical storm hitting in the region stretching from Cameron County to Harris County, Texas, where U.S. refineries with capacity of nearly 3 million barrels a day are located. That compares with a last-century average of 43.8%.

Chances of one or more hurricanes making landfall in the region are 47.1%, compared with 29.1% long term, while the likelihood of one or more intense hurricanes hitting is 22.2%, compared with 12.7% long term.

The greatest likelihood for landfall by one or more major hurricanes comes in the region from Iberia, La., to Holmes, Fla., home to 1.78 million barrels a day of refining capacity. This section of the Gulf Coast refining belt was devastated by Katrina.

Chances of a major strike in the area are 26.7%, compared with 15.5% long term. The likelihood of one or more named tropical storms in the region is 77.2% versus 55.1% in the last century.

Taken together, the two regions which hold about 4.75 million barrels a day of refining capacity, equal to 27.3% of the nation's total, have about a 25% chance of being struck by one or more intense hurricanes this season.


Quiet At Texas-Louisiana Border

The coastal region from eastern Texas to western Louisiana, which houses refineries with 1.9 million barrels a day of capacity, has relatively low odds of being hit by a major hurricane, at 4.3%, compared with 2.4% long term.

Klotzbach said the area including refinery towns of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, and Lake Charles, La., has a low historical average of landfall by hurricanes, despite being in a storm-prone neighborhood.

In fact, anxious oil traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange, who may be bidding up oil futures contracts on anticipation of an active Gulf hurricane season may be more in harm's way than the refineries in eastern Texas and western Louisiana, forecasts show. The region including the Bronx and Westchester, not far from Nymex's Manhattan locale, and running up through Nantucket, Mass., has a greater chance of being hit by an intense hurricane. Odds for a major hurricane strike in the region this season are 8.1%, compared with 4.4% long term.
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